Monday, December 05, 2011
'Reforms' may hold key to market move
Last week, Dalal Street ended in the green as global equity markets responded positively to the synchronised efforts being taken to tackle the European crisis. The Chinese central bank cut the reserve requirement by 50 basis points and further boosted the positive sentiments in the global economy. The market benchmark index, S&P CNX Nifty, moved up 7.22% last week to close at 5050, which, according to most technical analysts, is a crucial level. Industrial metals moved up in the commodity markets worldwide and Indian metal stocks reflected the movement. The BSE Metal index emerged as the best-performing sectoral index with weekly gains of 10.52%. The economy grew 6.9% in Q2 ended September 2011, in line with expectations, after expanding by 7.7% in the first quarter. The decision to allow 51% FDI in multi-brand retail led to a standoff in Parliament between the government and the opposition. The government is seen pushing the reforms agenda, but the opposition parties did not let any debate take place in Parliament. Analysts are of the view that mere announcements will be of no use unless the bill is passed in both the houses of Parliament. The likelihood of the bills supporting reforms getting passed in the Winter session is very low. Going forward, market participants will remain watchful of the reform process and the RBI's stance on interest rates. Auto stocks are likely to be keenly watched as some analysts expect a cut in the key rates in near future. Long-term investors are expected to adopt a wait-and-watch policy, seeking signals for further action from the advance tax payments of corporate entities.